2018 Arc Trial betting tips: Mirage Dancer makes most appeal at Newbury

The Horsebetting.com 2018 Arc Trial betting tips say Mirage Dancer can enhance trainer Sir Michael Stoute’s race record with victory. Feared most in this Group 3 test over 1m 3f at Newbury on Saturday, 22 September is last year’s winner Desert Encounter. Young Rascal is the clear best three-year-old, meanwhile, and solid each-way alternative. Our 2018 Arc Trial betting tips has more on this seven-runner contest.

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Odds
6/4
Selection
Mirage Dancer
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William Hill logo
Odds
4/1
Danger
Desert Encounter
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Odds
9/2
E/W
Young Rascal
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Mirage Dancer can deliver in Arc Trial

Anything sent to contest the 1m 3f Group 3 Arc Trial by trainer Sir Michael Stoute should be respected, and his sole representative in this year’s renewal at Newbury on Saturday (14:20) is Mirage Dancer. This four-year-old Frankel colt is top on unadjusted weight-for- age ratings and taken to land the spoils despite carrying 3lb penalty for his win in the grade last time out.

Mirage Dancer has won three of his 10 starts and placed on four other occasions, including when a far from disgraced 12-length third to Cracksman in the Group 2 Great Voltigeur Stakes at York’s Ebor Festival last season. Having landed his sole start as a juvenile his three-year-old campaign passed him by without victory, but he resumed winning ways on his second start this year.

That came after going down by a neck to Barsanti at Ascot on reappearance and Mirage Dancer then contested another 1m 4f Listed affair at Goodwood, where he ran out an easing down three-length winner over the re-opposing Euginio. Connections then dropped him back in trip for the 1m 2f Wolferton Stakes at the royal meeting where things didn’t go according to plan.

Although sent off favourite, Mirage Dancer was slowly into his stride and unable to quicken two out when denied a clear run. That forced his jockey to switch him at a key part of the race and he lacked the pace to challenge, but stayed on well to take fifth and be beaten 2 3/4 lengths by fellow Prince Khalid Abdullah owned colt Monarchs Glen.

Given how that Royal Ascot contest panned out, it is easy to forgive Mirage Dancer. It leaves the fact that Euginio reversed the Goodwood form by finishing in front of him as contentious, and he shaped far better when half-a-length runner-up in a Group 2 at Newmarket next time out that has thrown up plenty of subsequent winners.

Stepping back up to one-and-a-half miles saw Mirage Dancer chase home useful Godolphin owned colt Best Solution, who has since landed consecutive Group 1s in Germany. The third home Duretto scored at Listed level next time out, and the fourth was none other than subsequent Ebor Handicap hero Muntahaa.

As Mirage Dancer has also come out and won a Group 3 comfortably at Glorious Goodwood, that form has a very strong look to it. He thus sets a clear standard and, given the way he went clear before entering the final furlong in the Glorious Stakes last time out, dropping back a furlong here shouldn’t be a problem.

A repeat of his latest effort makes Mirage Dancer the one to beat and a career high mark of 116 doesn’t look beyond him based on his last two performances. With Ryan Moore once again in the saddle, he therefore is our main selection in these 2018 Arc Trial betting tips.

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Last year’s winner Desert Encounter feared most

David Simcock has trained the last three winners of this race, including 2017 victor Desert Encounter who – aged six – still retains plenty of his old ability. As he races here on the same mark he scored off 12 months, he is the one that can give Mirage Dancer most to think about.

This gelding was held-up in last year’s Arc Trial, then made headway from two out, was switched and came with a strong run to lead inside the last. Desert Encounter then stayed on well and only needed riding out to score by a neck from Second Step.

He has only gone in again once since, but that does not tell the whole story. Desert Encounter was a far from disgraced 4 1/2 lengths third of five to subsequent King George winner Poet’s Word on reappearance in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown.

Although well-beaten by the same rival in two subsequent Group 1s, his two-length runner-up to Emotionless in a Listed race over 1m 2f at this venue between them is evidence that Desert Encounter still has plenty to offer when eased in grade from elite assignments. Harry Bentley takes the ride again after steering him to victory last time out in another Listed event at Windsor over roughly this trip.

After being held-up, he made smooth progress three out and joined the leaders at the two marker before being shaken up to lead entering the final furlong. Bentley then just had to push Desert Encounter out for a comfortable 1 3/4 lengths success over Game Starter.

As the aforementioned Euginio finished nearly eight lengths behind him off level weights, he has nothing to fear from that rival. On those form lines and his previous race win, Desert Encounter is thus rated the main danger.

Young Rascal a solid each-way alternative

We haven’t seen Epsom Derby seventh Young Rascal on a racecourse since the premier Classic, but he returns from a 112-day break to line-up here for trainer William Haggas – another handler who has won the Arc Trial before. As he’s lightly-raced and the clear pick of the two three-year-olds and still getting weight from the market principals despite a penalty for a previous win in this grade, he is a solid each-way betting proposition with just seven in the field.

This colt has had just four career starts, scoring most impressively by five lengths over course and distance on seasonal reappearance after finishing second on his sole start as a juvenile. Young Rascal was then pitched into Group 3 company in the Chester Vase in May and overcame all sorts of trouble in-running to trump Dee Ex Bee by half-a-length.

While the form of that was reversed in The Derby with Mark Johnston’s horse coming on for the run, Young Rascal shaped better than the bare result suggests when beaten 16 1/2 lengths down in seventh by Masar at Epsom. This is a considerable ease in grade from a Classic contest and return to the venue of his most taking success looks sure to suit.

Provided he is not too rusty, Young Rascal’s mark of 112 – in receipt of 3lb and 6lb respectively from Desert Encounter and Mirage Dancer – puts him right in the mix with claims of making the frame. He is therefore the obvious each-way bet among our 2018 Arc Trial betting tips.

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