World Trophy betting tips: Hit The Bid backed for Newbury sprint success

The 2018 World Trophy betting tips at Horsebetting.com say Hit The Bid is worth a wager to land the spoils in the big 5f Group 3 sprint at Newbury. Last year’s winner Take Cover continues to thrive despite his advancing years and is feared most in this dash on Saturday, 22 September. Mr Lupton, meanwhile, looks each-way value in a typically wide-open renewal. For more on these horses’ hopes, read our 2018 World Trophy betting tips preview.

Betfred logo
Odds
7/1
Selection
Hit The Bid
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Betvictor logo
Odds
8/1
Danger
Take Cover
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William Hill logo
Odds
9/1
E/W
Mr Lupton
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Hit The Bid a hot bet to rule the World and claim Trophy

Irish raider Hit The Bid is much respected off the back of a career-best effort at the highest level last time out, so looks well worth a wager to cash-in on the ease in grade and land the Group 3 World Trophy at Newbury this Saturday (15:30) over the flying 5f. This four-year-old son of Exceed And Excel has won three of his 17 career outings all over the minimum trip including in the grade as juvenile.

Hit The Bid was also victorious on the forecast going at Listed level last season and then just held when beaten a neck in the valuable Rockingham Handicap at The Curragh. Although later fourth in a Group 2 at the same venue and then slowly into stride and never competitive in this race when 13th and beaten 7 3/4 lengths 12 months ago, he showed that running to be all wrong on his final start of the campaign when going down by a neck in another Listed affair.

Connections wintered Hit The Bid in Dubai and he ran really well in two Meydan handicaps, finishing second and first, before cracks at group races. His final assignment in the Middle East was a Group 1 over 6f, which has never suited him and he shaped much better when back down to 5f as a three-quarters of a length runner-up at Tipperary after a break.

That was clearly a prep run for the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes on Irish Champions Weekend and Hit The Bid finally put in a decent display at the highest level when a 1 1/4 lengths fourth to Havana Grey. After chasing the leaders and taking closer order halfway through the race, he was ridden into a close second and then just couldn’t find any extra under pressure in the final furlong when fading at the death.

As Hit The Bid had to give the third home Sioux Nation, who re-opposes here, 1lb and now gets 2lb from him, he meets that one on 3lb better terms for being beaten just half-a-length. That is a considerable swing in the weights, so race conditions are clearly in his favour.

Unlike last year where connections gave Hit The Bid two months off the track before running in this, he is quickly turned out again. Provided it doesn’t come soon and he reproduces his Flying Five form, he looks a value bet to land the spoils and has received plenty of ante post betting support.

If Hit The Bid does the business here, we’ll know whether the form stacks up ahead of Curragh second Son Of Rest’s bid to win the Ayr Gold Cup on bottomless ground in Scotland. He’s another that has attracted plenty of admirers in that market, though we’re seeking each-way value elsewhere in that valuable sprint handicap.

The assessor has left Hit The Bid on an unchanged mark of 110 – just 2lb higher than when last successful. He looks capable of living up to it here, however, and that’s why he’s the main bet in our 2018 World Trophy betting tips on Mill Reef day at Newbury.

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Thriving veteran Take Cover can go well

Having won the race aged 10 last year, popular veteran Take Cover bids to defend his crown for trainer David Griffiths and is clearly still thriving on his racing. He was just a head behind Hit The Bid in the Flying Five and, meeting off the same terms here, is the obvious danger in a wide-open renewal.

Like his re-opposing rival, he is 3lb better off at the weights with Sioux Nation and races this year off a 2lb lower rating than 12 months ago. While there’s clearly no more to come from him improvement wise as an 11-year-old, Take Cover may actually be a little underestimated by the assessor.

He made all and stayed on gamely last year, then followed-up with a neck win over Hit The Bid in that Listed race on the all-weather in Ireland to complete a hat-trick that began in the Beverley Bullet. Take Cover has already defended that title this season when quickly away and again front-running to keep on well to the line.

This gelded son of Singspiel had earlier chased home talented and mercurial sprinter Battaash in a Group 2 at Glorious Goodwood and then ran well when burdened with joint top weight in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes at York. Take Cover had the beating of Sioux Nation and others who re-oppose from the Ebor Festival when giving that one 2lb as a 4 1/4 lengths sixth to Alpha Delphini.

That he can still put in efforts like these despite his advancing years means he has to be taken seriously here. On the form lines through Sioux Nation off revised terms, Take Cover looks sure to be involved in the finish, is each-way value and should give old rival Hit The Bid plenty to think about.

Mr Lupton another each-way bet

A case can also be made for Richard Fahey trained five-year-old Mr Lupton making the frame. Again, the key form horse is Sioux Nation, who finished a 1 1/4 lengths in front of him in the Nunthorpe when getting 2lb and they meet now on 4lb better terms here.

Although both his wins this season have come at York, beating the re-opposing El Astronaute by a head in the first of home when giving him 2lb in a handicap and beating both that one again and Take Cover in a Listed affair, Mr Lupton also ran well when fourth to Battaash in the Group 2 King George Stakes at Glorious Goodwood.

Finishing ninth in the Nunthorpe and seventh in the Beverley Bullet since isn’t much to write home about, but the assessor has cut Mr Lupton some slack and eased his mark 2lb to 107 – just a couple of pounds higher than the rating he won that Listed race off. He also had to give Take Cover 3lb in the Beverley Bullet; so, taking that into account, hasn’t got that much too find now they meet off level weights having been beaten 3 1/2 lengths last time out.

French jockey Gerald Mosse is booked to ride Mr Lupton here, and they were successful when last teaming up and landing a Newmarket handicap in May 2017. In a really competitive-looking renewal, they have as good a chance as any on the pick of the gelding’s form of running at least into a place.

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