Celebration Mile Betting Tips – Century Dream Value at Goodwood

Goodwood Betting Tips · Saturday, 29th Aug 2020 - 15:35

Simon Crisford’s charge has his optimum conditions

The feature race at Goodwood on Saturday is the Group 2 Celebration Mile for three-year-olds and upwards (15:35). With forecast underfoot conditions holding no fears, Century Dream makes plenty of appeal at the odds on offer.

This Simon Crisford trained six-year-old has a fine strike rate of 32 per cent, having won eight of his 25 starts.

He enjoyed a fine time in 2017-18 when winning six times, including in a Group 3 at Epsom, and also ran a cracker when a close-up fourth of 15 to Accidental Agent in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Century Dream went on to round off the campaign with a fine three-quarters of a length third of 13 to Roaring Lion in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes on soft ground at the same venue when only losing second close home.

Although the son of Cape Cross failed to get his head in front last season, he did post some solid efforts in defeat, including when fourth in a Group 1 in Meydan.

He comes into the Celebration Mile, having looked as good as ever when making a winning return to action in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes at Newbury.

Century Dream was far from disgraced last time out when a 5 1/4 lengths fifth of eight to Persian King in a Group 1 at Chantilly.

The Celebration Mile represents a return to calmer waters. Century Dream is likely to get the ground that he relishes with the going currently soft at the time of writing and more rain forecast.

That is a huge plus as both the market leaders, Regal Reality and Benbatl, prefer a quicker surface. So, at 6/1 with BetVictor, Century Dream looks the value bet in a fascinating renewal.

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Regal Reality feared more than Benbatl

Benbatl is the class act in the field and an official rating of 125 gives him 8lb and upwards in hand on his six rivals.

However, this Group 1 winner has turned in some below par efforts on soft ground. For that reason alone, he looks worth taking on.

A bigger danger may well prove to be Regal Reality who bounced back to form in style last time out when storming clear to account for Beat Le Bon by 3 1/2 lengths in a Group 3 at Salisbury.

Prior to that this Sir Michael Stoute trained five-year-old gelding had been far from disgraced on his second start of the campaign when a 5 1/2 lengths sixth of seven to Ghaiyyath, who has since landed the Juddmonte International at York, in the Eclipse at Sandown.

Regal Reality also ran very well in the 2019 renewal of that when a keeping on 2 3/4 lengths third of eight to John Gosden’s wonder mare Enable.

That form commands him the utmost respect in this line-up, providing he does not get worked up in the preliminaries.

Regal Reality has done so on more than one occasion, often being reluctant to gallop down to the start. However, that wasn’t the case last time out at Salisbury, so hopefully he will be on his best behaviour again.

If that is the case, then Regal Reality looks sure to make a bold bid to follow-up. He can be backed at 3/1 with Betfair, to do just that.

Urban Icon has an each-way shout in Celebration Mile

If there is to be a bit of an upset, then the Richard Hannon trained Urban Icon could be the one to provide it.

This four-year-old was unbeaten in two runs as a juvenile and ran well in last year’s 2000 Guineas at Newmarket when eighth of 19 to Magna Grecia.

Urban Icon backed that up with a cracking neck second to Space Blues in a Listed contest at Epsom. That one is unbeaten in three starts this season and now rated 120 after landing a Group 1 in France last time out.

It gives that form a decent look. Urban Icon has run some solid races this term since making a winning return to action in a Listed affair at Wolverhampton back in March.

They include when a 5 1/4 lengths fifth of 11 to subsequent Group 1 Sussex Stakes winner Mohaather in the Group 2 Summer mile at Ascot and runner-up last time out in the Golden Mile Handicap at Glorious Goodwood under top weight of 9st 10lb.

Those efforts command Urban Icon plenty of respect in the Celebration Mile. At odds of 10/1 with bet365, he therefore makes most appeal from an each-way betting perspective – despite only two places being on offer.

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