Juddmonte International Stakes Betting Tips – Kameko Worth Another Go at York

York Betting Tips · Wednesday, 19th Aug 2020 - 15:15

Balding colt shares sire with owners’ 2018 winner

Kameko got no luck in-running whatsoever last time out, but can gain compensation in the 1m 2f Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes on the opening day of York’s Ebor Festival this Wednesday (15:15).

Trained by Andrew Balding for Qatar Racing, this Kitten’s Joy colt is related to the owners’ 2018 winner Roaring Lion.

In Kameko, connections have a Classic winner who has not had the run of the race on his last two starts. After progressing as a juvenile to land the Group 1 Vertem Futurity Trophy at Newcastle, big things were expected of him this season.

Kameko delivered on that with 2000 Guineas success at Newmarket on reappearance. The third home, Pinatubo who was beaten by a length, has since landed a Group 1 in France.

Off the back of that effort, Kameko was sent off the 5/2 favourite for the premier Classic, the Epsom Derby. However, the field were blown apart by an enterprising ride on 33/1 outsider Serpentine.

Although no match for the all-the-way winner, Kameko kept on into a modest fourth and was only beaten six lengths. Of those prominent in The Derby betting, he finished best of all.

Unlucky at Glorious Goodwood

Kameko then found himself denied a clear run when dropping back to 1m for the Sussex Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Qatar Racing’s retained rider Oisin Murphy took responsibility for that afterwards, but the pair were unlucky.

First finding traffic problems approaching two out, Kameko switched left only to find more in the final furlong. Murphy eased him down in the final strides as they were again short of room close home.

Given how the race panned out, Kameko’s 3 1/4 lengths fourth to Mohaather can be upgraded. The Juddmonte International Stakes sees him take on his elders again.

That means Kameko receives 7lb weight for age from the three older colts and geldings. He also gets 4lb from Irish mare Magical and, on adjusted ratings, comes out with just 1lb to find with favourite Ghaiyyath.

It puts Kameko bang in there, granted better luck in the run. Balding’s stable is on a 22 per cent strike rate with its runners in the last 14 days at the time of writing too.

Jockey Murphy is also having a fine season with 21 wins from his last 80 rides, again at the time of writing. Taking all that into account, Kameko looks a value bet for some compensation in the Juddmonte International Stakes.

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Ghaiyyath heads Juddmnonte International Stakes betting and dangers

After consecutive Group 1 wins this season, Godolphin’s five-year-old Ghaiyyath is the market leader. Trained by Charlie Appelby, this son of Dubawi had problems backing up big wins in the past.

Ghaiyyath bombed out in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp last autumn after an absolutely scintillating display in a German Group 1 beforehand.

It may have been the very soft ground that blunted this front-runner in Paris, but he has looked better than ever this season.

After landing a Group 3 in Meydan over the winter by 8 1/2 easy lengths, Ghaiyyath made all in the Coronation Cup. That was his first British start in over 18 months.

Although Ghaiyyath kept on well, he wasn’t hassled on the front end and won unchallenged. Other horses in the Coronation Cup, notably Stradivarius, were using the race as a pipe-opener for other things.

However, Ghaiyyath has since followed-up on his Newmarket triumph by dropping back in trip for the Eclipse at Sandown. He was a comfortable three-quarters of a length winner over subsequent King George scorer Enable there.

Appleby then named the Juddmonte International Stakes as the next target for Ghaiyyath. He has been favourite for this ever since, and his handler believes the Knavesmire will play to his strengths.

Ghaiyyath is entitled to his prominent position in the betting, but isn’t value. He commands respect with his price the only reason to take him on.

Lord North and Magical out to follow-up

Other obvious dangers to Kameko are fellow Group 1 winners Lord North and Magical. The former is a progressive John Gosden inmate that has rapidly gone through the grades since last autumn.

Just 11 months ago Lord North landed the Cambridgeshire Handicap at Newmarket. He ended last season with victory at Listed level and returned with a battling victory in the Group 3 Brigadier Gerard at Haydock.

Lord North then made the step up to the highest level when landing the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot. The Dubawi gelding ran out a comfortable 3 1/4 lengths winner in his greatest success to date.

That form has taken knocks, however. Barney Roy, who was third home, suffered defeat in Germany last time out. Japan, fourth in the Prince Of Wales, failed to fire in the King George behind Enable.

It makes Dubawi gelding Lord North opposable. Magical has won four of her last five starts in Group 1s and finished ahead of Ghaiyyath in the Arc, so has obvious claims.

Trained in Ireland by Aidan O’Brien, who has won the Juddmonte International a joint-record six times, the five-year-old mare has a great record at the trip.

When Magical isn’t bumping into old rival Enable, she has a fine CV. That includes consecutive victories on British Champions Day, the British and Irish Champion Stakes double last season and the last two Tattersalls Gold Cups.

Magical has been too good for anything in the Emerald Isle over a mile-and-a-quarter in recent times. She is well worth her place in this field and a big danger.

Big ask for Aspetar and Rose Of Kildare

The other two Juddmonte International Stakes horses declared face a huge task. Aspetar was an impressive course and distance winner in Group 2 company last time out, but this demands more.

Trained by Roger Charlton, the five-year-old Al Kazeem gelding won a German Group 1 last term. Better known for his international exploits over a mile-and-a-half, Aspetar also landed the Grand Prix de Chantilly in 2019.

The Charlton stable comes into the Ebor Festival in fine form too. His yard is operating at an almost 30 per cent strike rate with its runners in the last fortnight.

As Aspetar stays further, a strongly run race suits him just fine. Double figure odds about his Juddmonte International Stakes chances reflect that this will take a career best from him.

Rank outsider Rose Of Kildare completes the line-up for local trainer Mark Johnston. Like Aspetar, this three-year-old filly is a course and distance winner when last in action.

Although showing tremendous quality to rally and win going away in the Group 3 Musidora Stakes, this is another level. Despite getting weight all-round, Rose Of Kildare has it all to do despite being unexposed at the trip.

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