Falmouth Stakes Betting Tips – Terebellum the one to be on in Newmarket Group 1 feature

Newmarket Betting Tips · Friday, 10th Jul 2020 - 16:10

John Gosden’s improving filly a worthy favourite

The feature race on day two of the July Festival at Newmarket on Friday is the 1m Group 1 Falmouth Stakes for three-year-old fillies and upwards (16:10).

Following a career-best effort last time out, Terebellum looks to hold outstanding claims of landing the spoils.

This John Gosden trained four-year-old progressed throughout last season and has won three of her six starts.

She looked better than ever on seasonal reappearance here on the Rowley Mile course after landing the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes over 1m 2f when running on strongly to readily beat Queen Power by just over a length.

That taking success earned Terebellum a crack at the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot and she ran a cracker in the 1m contest to finish a head second of 15 to Circus Maximus.

After travelling strongly, the Godolphin owned daughter of Sea The Stars was ridden to take up the lead a furlong from home and asked to put the race to be by Frankie Dettori.

Terebellum looked the likely winner at that point, but Circus Maximus rallied tenaciously to get up in the dying strides.

Dettori arguably went too soon on her, but it was still a huge run and one which sets the standard in the Falmouth Stakes.

He is sure to have learnt from that experience and ride Terebellum more patiently in this and a repeat of that effort is going to make her very hard to beat.

So, with underfoot conditions holding no fears and Gosden in good form, Terebellum looks a worthy favourite and the one to be on at 6/4 with Betfred.

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Stable companion Nazeef feared most

One Master has never won over the 1m trip of this, so the ultra-progressive Nazeef rates the main danger to her stable companion Terebellum.

Since finishing a highly promising third on debut, this Hamdan Al Maktoum owned four-year-old daughter of Invincible Spirit is unbeaten in five starts.

In the third of those at this venue, Nazeef made a mockery of her opening handicap mark of 93 when winning easing down by six lengths.

It was a performance which marked her out as an exciting prospect. Nazeef duly followed-up a 14-runner Listed contest at Kempton when cosily beating Billesdon Brook by three-quarters of a length.

She was well on top at the finish, so there is no reason why he should not confirm the form with the re-opposing runner-up.

It was a most taking display and Nazeef comes into this having landed the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot where she ran on strongly to get up close home and beat Agincourt by a head.

Judge on that performance, she looks well worth a crack at this level. Nazeef is clearly on a serious upward curve and appeals as the type that has even more to offer.

She can be backed at 5/1 with Coral to go in again under regular pilot Jim Crowley.

Agincourt the each-way value in Falmouth Stakes

Given that the aforementioned Agincourt was only narrowly beaten by Nazeef at Royal Ascot, she looks the each-way option in the race at the odds on offer.

This five-year-old is aiming to provide trainer David O’Meara and owner Sir Robert Ogden with a second success in the Falmouth Stakes.

The pair teamed up to land the contest with Amazing Maria in 2015. She took the spoils having landed the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot on her previous start.

Agincourt has used the same race as a stepping stone and, although she had to settle for second behind Nazeef, she ran a stormer to go down all guns blazing.

It was the second time that the pair had met this season, with Agincourt previously being beaten 3 1/2 lengths when seventh of 17 to Gosden’s charge in a Listed affair at Kempton.

Nazeef went off at 100/30 at the Royal Meeting, whereas Agincourt was an unconsidered 28/1 chance.

O’Meara, who trained his 1000th Flat winner at Pontefract this week, has insisted that the odds were misleading and that there was no fluke about the performance.

So, if taking that form at face value, there is little to split the pair. Therefore, at nearly triple the odds of Nazeef, Agincourt had to feature as the each-way selection at the 14/1 available with BetVictor.

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