Lonsdale Cup Betting Tips – Dashing Willoughby Value for Hat-Trick

York Betting Tips · Friday, 21st Aug 2020 - 14:15 ·

Balding stayer can continue fine form

One of two supporting races on Nunthorpe day at the Ebor Festival in York on Friday is the 2m Group 2 Lonsdale Cup (14:15). Dashing Willoughby has won both of his starts this season, so looks value for his hat-trick.

This four-year-old Nathaniel gelding landed the Group 2 Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot last year on soft ground. Any rain that hits the Knavesmire between now and this race shouldn’t be a problem, then.

Although beaten on his final four starts of last term, Dashing Willoughby bounced back to form when eased to Listed level on reappearance. He made all in the Buckhounds Stakes over 1m 4f at Newmarket before stepping up in trip and grade.

Dashing Willoughby followed-up in the Group 3 Henry II Stakes on Eclipse day at Sandown. Despite racing freely, he made smooth headway to lead approaching two out

When into unknown territory with his stamina, Dashing Willoughby found plenty. He could even afford to wander around in the last half-furlong and beat Spanish Mission by 1 1/4 lengths.

The front two pulled 11 lengths clear of Ascot Gold Cup third Cross Counter in third. On a form line through that Godolphin gelding, that gives Dashing Willoughby claims of reversing past form with Nayef Road.

Trainer Andrew Balding also goes into the Ebor Festival on a 23 per cent strike rate with his recent runners. Oisin Murphy is again on board Dashing Willoughby and has partnered him to all three previous pattern successes.

At the odds on offer, Dashing Willoughby can continue his fine season with Lonsdale Cup glory.

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Nayef Road a bigger danger than Enbihaar

John Gosden has won the last two renewals with Stardivarius, but the Newmarket handler’s star stayer has other targets this year. The yard still has representation courtesy of Enbihaar, but the trip is an unknown.

The five-year-old Redoute’s Choice mare was a beaten favourite on her only previous start at York. This is also tougher than the three-runner Group 2 contest Enbihaar took at Glorious Goodwood.

Despite being favourite with bookmakers and a 3lb sex allowance, there are reasons to take her on and Nayef Road rates a bigger danger.

Trained by Mark Johnston, who has won the Lonsdale Cup three times before, this four-year-old Galileo colt is a Group 3 winner over the trip.

That success came on reappearance in the Sagaro Stakes on the all-weather at Newcastle. Nayef Road was then best of the rest behind Stradivarius at both Royal Ascot and Glorious Goodwood.

He got much closer to the winner in the Goodwood Cup, but that was because Stradivarius got trapped on the inside. As Nayef Road outran massive odds of 20/1 last time out and was beaten just a length in a Group 1, he has claims.

Without Stradivarius, this is much easier. However, ratings topper Nayef Road has tried to make all or most of the running in recent outings and not been able to.

For that reason, Dashing Willoughby is preferred even though he was behind Nayef Road in the St Leger last autumn. The Johnston stable form is also a concern.

Eagles By Day no forlorn hope in Lonsdale Cup

Of the remainder, course winner Eagles By Day has put two good efforts in this season since switching stables.

Now trained by David O’Meara, the four-year-old Sea The Stars colt landed the Group 3 John Smith’s Silver Cup over 1m 6f here on debut for the yard.

After being held-up, Eagles By Day started making headway approaching three out. He was the unfancied 14/1 outsider that day, but when ridden kept on strongly for a half-length victory over Communique.

The way he finished off that race suggests he may stay further. Although only fourth in the Goodwood Cup last time out, Eagles By Day again outran odds of 40/1.

He was just three lengths behind Santiago in third at the line and trying to give that rivals a whopping 15lb. On his last York run, Eagles By Day is no forlorn hope in the Lonsdale Cup.

While he needs the first three in the betting to under-perform, the ease in grade is in his favour. Like his fellow four-year-olds, Eagles By Day is open to further progress than the others in this.

There is only 1lb on official ratings between him and Dashing Willoughby. It makes Eagles By Day one to consider each-way.

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