Pavilion Stakes Betting Tips – Ventura Rebel a bit of value at Newcastle
Newcastle Betting Tips · Thursday, 04th Jun 2020 - 15:55
Author:
Dave Metcalf
Publish Date:
Tuesday, 02nd Jun 2020
Topic:
Horsebetting Tip
Experiences:
Our expert in-house tipster
Topic:
Horsebetting Tip
Experiences:
Our expert in-house tipster
Dave Metcalf has over 35 years of experience in the media industry having worked for regional and national newspapers. He is a life-long horse racing and football fan, and has done interviews on various radio and TV stations, including talkSPORT and Sky Sports, whilst working as a PR frontman for major betting firm Betfred.
Dave has written for At The Races, provided betting previews for the 2010 World Cup via a website he owned. It was the first time they had covered any football event. He also appeared weekly on Sing When You’re Winning – football and general sports betting show on MUTV to provide odds and tips alongside former Manchester United striker Lou Macari.
Fahey has started resumption of racing in decent form
Ventura Rebel ran some very eye-catching races last season, so looks a value punt in the 6f Group 3 Pavilion Stakes for three-year-olds on the all-weather at Newcastle on Thursday (15:55).
Trainer Richard Fahey had a winner and placed horses at this venue earlier this week. In Ventura Rebel, he has Pastoral Pursuits colt that landed both of his first two starts.
After a maiden victory at Thirsk, he followed-up on Royal Ascot Trials day by lowering the colours of American raider Lady Pauline. Ventura Rebel beat her by a length going away at finish despite giving the runner-up 5lb.
That punched his ticket to Royal Ascot. Although beaten a neck by the re-opposing A’Ali in the Group 2 Norfolk Stakes, that doesn’t tell the full story.
Ventura Rebel was denied a clear run approaching the final furlong, yet still picked up and gained on the winner. He was never going to catch Simon Crisford’s stable star, though, and also lost a shoe.
While Ventura Rebel was then a beaten favourite in a valuable sales race at Newbury, he again found trouble in-running. He kept on into fourth and was only beaten two lengths by Bettys Hope.
As Ventura Rebel tried to give the winner 10lb and re-opposing stable companion Show Me Show Me 4lb, this was a good performance.
Although he hasn’t been seen since, he now meets both his stablemate and A’Ali off 4lb better terms. Ventura Rebel is thus worth a punt in the Pavilion Stakes.
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With top rated and triple Group 2 scorer A’Ali giving weight all-round, the main danger may be Malotru. A previous winner in this grade for Italian trainer Marco Botti, he is also two from two on the all-weather.
Malotru won on debut at Chelmsford before following-up at the San Siro with a ready 2 1/2 lengths success. That black type to his name mean this Casamento colt had cracks in Group 2 company.
He was far from disgraced when a five-length fourth in the Gimcrack at York or a four-length fifth in the Mill Reef at Newbury.
Malotru made an impressive step up in trip when eased in grade to Listed level and back on an artificial surface at Lingfield.
Despite being slowly away, he later quickened up and led inside the final furlong, scoring by 3 1/4 lengths. The runner-up, Raeeb, is a Godolphin own colt that previously chased home Classic contender Kinross.
Sun Power, beaten 5 1/2 lengths in fourth, finished in that spot behind 2000 Guineas favourite Pinatubo in the Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot.
That is smart form. Malotru is thus towards the head of the betting here, and the drop back in trip shouldn’t be a problem.
Show Me Show Me overpriced for Pavilion Stakes
One of Fahey’s other runners, the aforementioned Show Me Show Me, can go well at a big price on the pick of his form.
This son of Showcasing was a desperately unlucky loser in the Newbury sales race where Ventura Rebel ran fourth. Show Me Show Me went down in the final stride and was giving 6lb to the winner.
He then stayed on past beaten horses and snatched third in the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodood. As Show Me Show Me lost a shoe and gave the winner, Liberty Beach, 3lb, that was a fine effort.
Although he didn’t trouble the judge in two subsequent starts, connections gelded him at the end of the season. If that helps Show Me Show Me to settle down, then he could take a step forward here.
Bookmakers may pay extra places on the Pavilion Stakes with a field of 14, so that means there are each-way bets on offer. Show Me Show Me could be worth chancing on that basis.
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